Internet analyst Mary Meeker from Morgan Stanley presented a report on Internet trends at Events@Google yesterday. Echoing those trends identified in her 2009 presentation, the report focuses on the rapid and continued growth of the mobile internet and social networking. Claiming that the world has entered the fifth major technology cycle, Meeker predicts that this cycle will be marked by the adoption of mobile Internet technologies, as the trends of "3G + Social Networking + Video + VoIP + Impressive Mobile Devices" converge. Meeker predicts the mobile Internet will be bigger than desktop in five years, noting that by comparing iPhone and iPod touch versus AOL and Netscape users, that mobile Internet is ramping up at a rate far faster than desktop did. Furthermore, she argues that 3G coverage has reached a global inflection point, meaning it is available to at least 20% of the world's cellphone users.

Within the next five years "more users will connect to the Internet over mobile devices than desktop PCs," according to Meeker.

Also -- based on adoption rates of iPhone/iPod touch compared to that of AOL and Netscape in the early 1990s -- Meeker says that mobile Internet usage is increasing substantially faster than desktop Internet usage did. Indeed, adoption of the Apple devices is taking place more than 11 times faster that of AOL, and several times as fast as that of Netscape. Supporting this trend is 3G technology, which Morgan Stanley says recently hit an "inflection point" by being available to more than 20% of the world's cellular users.

On the social networking side, Meeker’s report notes that social network use is bigger than email in terms of both aggregate numbers of users and time spent, and is still growing rapidly. Social networking passed email in terms of time spent in 2007, hitting about 100 billion minutes/month globally — it’s now twice that — and passed email in terms of raw user numbers in July of 2009, with more than 800 million. Given the rate at which Facebook has been growing, that number is probably now closer to a billion. Meeker attributes social networking’s success to the fact that it’s a “unified communications + multimedia creation tool/repository in your pocket.” And Japan’s experience makes how crucial mobile is to that equation: Mixi, one of the country’s largest social networks, has seen its mobile page views grow to 72 percent of the total from just 17 percent three years ago.

While the trends Meeker identifies in her report will be familiar to ReadWriteWeb readers, it is worth considering how some of what she observes might impact startups, providing opportunities for new business ventures.

Mobile E-Commerce: Not only is mobile increasingly the method by which users are accessing the Internet, Meeker contends that mobile will revolutionize e-commerce, forcing both innovations for both online and brick-and-mortar companies. She identifies location-based services, push notifications, transparent pricing, and instant mobile delivery as four potential areas this will occur.

Virtual Goods: The success of Tencent, with over $2 billion in sales of virtual goods in China, demonstrates the potential for this area, Meeker argues

Applications: Noting the success of both Facebook and Apple in the app market, what Meeker labels as "vibrant developer / application platform ecosystems, " she suggests that companies will continue to leverage social networks for fans and for revenue.

Video: Meeker's research points to video as outpacing VoIP and other resources people seek to access with their mobile devices.

Look to Japan: Meeker points to the Japanese social networking site Mixi, who has seen its mobile page views increase from 17% of total views three years ago to 72% today.

It is clear that social networks and mobile Internet will continue to play a huge role in shaping the future of technology and business development.

The Full Report:
Internet Trends Mary Meeker (04/12/2010)